“A Decisive and Historic Stage” — A New Era of Revolutions in West Asia is Incubating

A compilation tracking consequential & strategic observations in West Asia with a focus on the Resistance Front (15 Sept 2026)

Ibrahim Al-Amine: Is Netanyahu planning to attack Iran and Yemen? /

Al-Akhbar: Iran-Oman talks at final stages of drafting mechanism to regulate navigation through Hormuz — for subsequent registration at the IMO in the Netherlands /

Al-Akhbar: Iran’s demands beyond implementation of the MOU outlined /

Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei: ‘We are at decisive and historic stage; Our ultimate destination is the establishment of a new Islamic civilization’  /

‘The 200th Night of the Iranian Nation’s Uprising’ /

AnsarAllah: ‘Blockade for Blockade”; ‘Precision operations deep inside Saudi territory to continue’ /

‘The Second Phase of the Islamic Revolution … this time in Yemen’

CONSEQUENTIAL OBSERVATIONS —

Is Netanyahu planning to attack Iran and Yemen? (Ibrahim al-Amine, Editor, Al-Akhbar):

[Key points from the article — ]

• “The prevailing view is that Israel has no intention of, nor is it capable of opening additional fronts in the region … It was therefore striking that US diplomatic sources warned that Netanyahu’s recent remarks on Lebanon, Syria and Iran are not merely part of the election campaign; that he means what he says; and that he is exerting significant pressure on the security services and the IDF leadership to prepare for a lightning operation against Iran first, and against Hezbollah second.

• “Sources say that Netanyahu is also offering his services to the Arabian Peninsula states by expressing his willingness to participate in an all-out war against the Houthis in Yemen.

• “Significant pressure being exerted on him by the US administration is currently focused on the Syrian issue, with the aim of preventing him from expanding the scope of the occupation. It should be noted that there are those in Washington who are hearing a great deal about the Tel Aviv government’s intention to take broader steps to help its Druze allies in Suwayda declare complete secession from Syria.

• “According to sources, Israeli efforts regarding Iran are centred on an intelligence programme aimed at carrying out a series of strikes and a return to a policy of assassinations targeting political, military and security leaders, through special operations carried out inside Iran, as well as re-establishing contact with separatist Iranian groups to provide them with exceptional support to instigate unrest in various parts of the country, with the ultimate aim of provoking the Iranian leadership into a military confrontation, thereby enabling Israel to launch an air campaign targeting the Iranian state’s infrastructure, particularly the energy, ports and oil production sectors.

• “The sources express their concern that Netanyahu may be acting on the assumption that his room for manoeuvre is expanding day by day, as a result of the stalling of efforts to reinstate the MOU between Iran and the United States.

• “In this context, well-informed sources have revealed that Iranian-Omani talks have reached the final stages of drafting a mechanism to regulate navigation through the Strait of Hormuz ... This agreement is viewed as a provisional arrangement for managing maritime traffic in the Strait. Technical and legal teams in Tehran and Muscat have finalised the maps and legal documents relating to the agreement, which are to include a mechanism for the clearance of naval mines. The two sides have also been in contact with the Netherlands with a view to registering the agreement with the International Maritime Organisation and international legal institutions based in The Hague, thereby providing it with legal and international cover.

• “According to the sources, Iran is proceeding on the basis that Oman is conducting the negotiations in consultation and coordination with the US and regional states; consequently, any agreement accepted by Muscat will, in principle, be acceptable to the other parties. However, Iran has informed the mediators – Pakistan and Oman – that the implementation of the agreement, once signed, will remain contingent upon the US returning to the MOU and considering this solution as addressing the provisions of Clause 5 thereof. This means that the US must lift the naval blockade currently imposed on Iran, remove restrictions on Iranian oil exports, and lift the sanctions imposed on the country. In this scenario, it is assumed that all parties will move on to a new phase aimed at bringing the war to a comprehensive end, including the war in Lebanon.

• “Whilst sources speak of ‘positive signs’ regarding this issue, they simultaneously point out that developments on the ground over the past two weeks open the door to a serious possibility of the war escalating. They believe that Iran’s harsh responses to US attacks, and the concentrated bombing of US bases in the Gulf and Jordan, are intended to signal to Washington that Tehran is not prepared to make concessions, and that the confrontation could escalate to the point of preventing all maritime traffic in Gulf waters, not just the passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

• “Agreement on opening the Strait is not the only sticking point in the negotiations. In exchange for resuming the MOU, Iran wants firm guarantees regarding the lifting of the embargo, the release of frozen Iranian funds, and a complete end to the state of war. These conditions require additional elements that may need to be pursued with other parties.

• “Sources indicate, in this context, that Saudi Arabia is playing a significant role in the behind-the-scenes mediation … Bin Salman has extended an official invitation to the Iranian leadership, amid expectations that an Iranian delegation comprising Qalibaf and FM Araghchi will visit Riyadh in the coming days. The Saudi side wishes to discuss the conflict with Iran and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the ongoing war with Ansar Allah. Tehran had previously shown no willingness to engage with proposals concerning Yemen; however, the situation now appears to be different, in light of developments on the ground which have shown Ansar Allah forces making advances across the entire coastal region and taking control of [key] areas, amidst major collapses in the ranks of the forces allied with Saudi Arabia … The UAE, which is standing on the sidelines watching developments … is speaking with schadenfreude about the Saudi role, holding Riyadh responsible for the rift between the forces opposing Ansar Allah.

• “Sources indicate that the Yemen dossier does not appear to be entirely in Saudi hands, as various indications suggest that the US seems more keen to expand the scope of Saudi involvement in the aggression against the Sana’a government, whilst Washington has resumed bolstering the UAE’s role alongside certain factions in southern Yemen, with the aim of escalating the confrontation with Ansar Allah …

• “[However], the Bab al-Mandab Strait is now in the hands of Iran and its allied forces, and the battle led by Ansar Allah’s forces is merely part of a broader strategy that will force the US and several other countries to reconsider their calculations. The complete closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait is no longer merely a theoretical possibility; it has become a card effectively held by Ansar Allah, who have their own calculations and priorities, foremost among which is lifting the blockade on Yemen. Nevertheless, they do not act outside the strategy of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ at the regional level”.

Supreme Leader Imam Mujtaba Khamenei: ‘We have reached a decisive and historic stage; Our ultimate destination is the establishment of a new Islamic civilization’ (Unity Week, 28 Aug 2026):

“Today, after passing through difficult and turbulent eras and countless ups and downs since the earliest days of Islam, Islam and its followers have reached a decisive and historic stage. Muslims today have the opportunity to play a profoundly influential and history-making role. Today is a day when the prospect of the ultimate triumph of truth over falsehood … is closer to reality than at any previous period in history. The first condition for achieving this is the unity of Muslims … If Muslims had truly been one united hand, firmly clenched together, would the people of Palestine have been left so defenseless in the face of oppression and crimes committed by the occupiers? And if the nations and governments along the Persian Gulf had united under the banner of Islam, would corrupt and illegitimate forces from thousands of kilometers away have dared to covet their lands and wealth? My repeated and emphatic recommendation to the rulers of Islamic countries, especially those in West Asia and along the Persian Gulf, is this: recognize your real enemy, understand its plans, and confront them …

The criminal rulers of the US and the illegitimate Zionist regime are sworn enemies of this unity and friendship. They are not only enemies of the Islamic Republic, the Iranian nation, and the great Resistance Front, but enemies of the entire Muslim Ummah, including the peoples of West Asia and North Africa … The first lesson of Islam regarding relations with enemies and friends is unity and avoiding internal conflict … The ultimate destination of this path is the establishment of a new Islamic civilization. Unity among Muslims is the cornerstone for achieving a dignified and victorious Islamic civilization. This intellectual and conceptual vision, which represents our aspiration for the Muslim world, has to a considerable extent been realized in dear Iran …”.

‘The 200th Night of the Iranian Nation’s Uprising’ (15 Set 2026):

IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Sayyed Majid Mousavi on the 200th night of the Iranian nation’s uprising:

“… May God’s blessings and mercy be upon you, worthy people who, in fulfilling your religious and national duty, have stood firm like mountains, surged like rivers, and burned with the heat of molten iron. Through your extraordinary, tireless, epic, and enemy-defying presence, you have preserved the 200th night of your uprising in the streets, seeking vengeance for our martyred Imam and obeying the command of the Vali Faqih. Your nightly uprising, which has continued in defense of the country’s identity, independence, and existence, has astonished the world. It has demonstrated a high level of national rationality, lofty religious values, and the distinguished culture and civilization of this nation, presenting before the peoples of the world a superior image of a great nation …”.

Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Shaykh Naim Qassim: ‘We broke the ‘greater Israel’ project’ (28 August 2026):

“Islamic unity is the orientation toward the true enemy of the nation and breaking away from internal conflicts. Islamic unity has two consequences: the first is that we remain united to prevent sedition … [and secondly] that we remain united around the central cause of Palestine, which expresses the future of the entire region. The cause of Palestine is not a sectarian cause; rather, it is an Islamic, national, pan-Arab, and humanitarian cause …

There is an aggressive American-“Israeli” project to control and fragment the region, which Iran and the resistance forces are confronting. We are witnessing extraordinary events as America paves the way to increase control and prepare the necessary premises for the establishment of “greater “Israel”, taking advantage of its power and strength, and taking advantage of the submission existing in our region … The great sacrifices made in Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, and Iraq have halted the Zionist-American project targeting the region ...

What exists today is not a mutual war, but blatant “Israeli” aggression that escalates and de-escalates, and had it not been for Iran and the MOU, it would not have de-escalated. “Israel’s” project is “greater Israel”, and the proof is what is happening in Syria ... We broke the “greater Israel” project and prevented it from reaching Beirut and stripping Lebanon of its power … We are in a state of confrontation, we will remain steadfast, and we accept the implementation of the November 27, 2024 agreement under the ceiling of Resolution 1701 and nothing else … “Israel” cannot achieve achievements in the presence of the resistance, its people, the honourable, the martyrs, and the sacrifices …”.

AnsarAllah: ‘Blockade for Blockade”; ‘Precision operations deep inside Saudi territory to continue’

“… The Yemeni Armed Forces will continue conducting such precision operations deep into Saudi territory as long as this unjust aggression against our people persists. Any new aggression will be met with even broader and more intense operations … We remain committed to maintaining the principle of “blockade for blockade” and “escalation for escalation,” targeting Saudi military deployments until the aggression ceases and the blockade on our beloved country is lifted”.

‘The Second Phase of the Islamic Revolution … this time in Yemen’

‘With Yemen liberating itself from the claws of wretched, delusional, and short-sighted mercenaries [and] proxy militias … we are witnessing another Islamic Revolution after 47 years of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The Yemeni Revolution is the second phase of the Islamic Revolution, taking that revolutionary project toward its next stage … The revolution never ended. Imam Khomeini, Imam Khamenei, thousands of martyrs, and millions of Iranians kept the revolution alive and continued its mission for decades … It is a revolution that has awakened other nations seeking dignity, independence, and freedom from imperial domination instead of submission to it … We fail to fully appreciate the historical scale of what is unfolding’.

Iran plans creation of more than 1,000 volunteer battalions:

Applications to participate in Iran’s “Self-Sacrificers (Jān Fada)” campaign have exceeded 31.5 million, prompting organizers to announce plans to form more than 1,000 volunteer battalions. These will be organized to help defend the country in the event of an attack by the US. From 15 September, registered volunteers will be able to attend courses in military training and first aid.

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