Clarity: A New ‘Balance of Power Equation’

Alastair Crooke

A new big-picture ‘balance of power’ equation has been set by the geo-strategic collapse of Syria

Prince Bandar’s post-2006 playing of the radical Sunni jihadist ‘card’ failed; it did not lead to the ouster of President Assad, in no small part thanks to Russia’s 2015 military intervention in Syria. It did, however, re-ignite radical jihadism across the globe, and led to a new phase of western attrition of Iran.

As a consequence, the regional balance of power was decisively shifted away from Iran towards Sunni Islam (through the weaponising of Wahhabism and the consequent civil wars). Iran, however, in the intervening period, though ostracised, still succeeded to ‘come in from the cold’ -- creating a formidable buried missile deterrence, and so situated itself both as a primary regional power and, as strategic partner to Russia and China, an important actor in BRICS.

The Gulf States of today, by contrast, have switched their focus from Islamist identity politics, to a primary interest in ‘markets’ and Tech.

Today, a new big picture ‘balance of power’ equation has been set by the geo-strategic collapse of Syria. It was triggered by two fundamentals: Firstly, that the ‘Caesar Sanctions’ on Syria, coupled with the US seizure and occupation of Syria’s oil and agricultural resources, plus Turkey’s plundering of Syria’s eastern industrial base, had collapsed Syria’s viability as an economic entity and as a functioning state.

Between 2011-2023, the Syrian economy contracted a phenomenal 85%, and cautious estimates suggest reconstruction costs of some $300 billion at a minimum. There was simply no wherewithal by which to maintain a state. The country had been sunk into absolute poverty, decay and dysfunctionality.

Secondly, President Assad had bet that a turn by him towards the West -- strongly advocated by certain Gulf States -- could lead to a normalising of Syria with Washington and even a lifting of sanctions.