Conflicts Forum Occasional Sitrep: The Third Phase of the Iran War

24 July 2026

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The Third Phase of the War — Iran believes it has succeeded in achieving its strategic goals in this round of the war

• The 14th consecutive night of American strikes on Iran witnessed another wave of widespread attacks across multiple provinces. Iran has warned that for every item of Iranian infrastructure struck by the US, a multiple of similar strikes on infrastructure — including that in Israel — will be mounted in consequence.

• A statement issued by the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force said: “Iranian missiles are locked onto the region’s oil and electricity infrastructure”.

• Parliament speaker Qalibaf concurred: “The equation of this war is clear: either all or none! In a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil. If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe”.

• At the beginning of the week, Iran’s Noor news agency cautioned: “In light of the new US strategy against Iran, Iran is preparing for a protracted conflict that will encompass the entire region. Arab governments will be the first casualties of this ‘war of attrition’”.

• Huge explosions have been reported across Bahrain and Kuwait as Iran launches wave after wave of ballistic missiles inflicting significant damage to US military infrastructure. Kuwait houses two leading US bases in the region — Camp Al-Adairi which is located 104 kilometers from the Iran border and serves as a key center for logistical support for US military operations. Ali Al Salem Air Base serves as the primary air transport, logistics hub and gateway for the deployment of US military forces in the region. Reports suggest heavy explosions are ongoing at the the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Additionally, Iranian missiles reportedly struck the King Faisal and Muwaffaq Al Salti bases in Jordan, where American forces are stationed (resulting in significant casualties).

• CENTCOM’s ‘Eye’ Digital Intelligence in Bahrain reportedly has shut down. Iranian news agency Tasnim reports that Iran targeted and damaged Amazon’s central data infrastructure in Bahrain — one of the main information exchange hubs supporting the American military.

Behind the headlines: Iran believes that it has so far succeeded in achieving the goals of what it considers the third round in the first phase of the war. US aircraft have been pushed back from the front lines and the remaining US ground-based radar early warning and satellite communication systems have been critically damaged and/or destroyed.

Why it matters: By sweeping US assets out of the immediate vicinity of Iran, this reduces the US’ ability to gather intelligence and degrades US capabilities to re-fuel strike aircraft — and as well provides tempting targets for Iran (reportedly there are 100 US refuelling tankers sitting in the open at Ben Gurion airport).

Bigger picture 1: Iran has warned Kuwait and Bahrain that should they continue to allow US missile launches from their territory, Iranian retaliatory attacks will intensify. Iranian strikes have already caused extensive damage to Kuwait’s oil infrastructure and to electricity and water desalination infrastructure which, with the complete cessation of oil exports, is leading to what one Iranian commentator termed ‘the inability of the Sheikhdom to continue to function’. Were Iran to bomb the strategically important King Fahd bridge that connects Bahrain to Saudi Arabia, this would cut off Bahrain and US forces from reinforcement and re-supply.

Bigger Picture 2: Trump’s Ceasefire Proposal delivered by the Iraqi PM was rejected by Iran. A rebuffed Trump subsequently announced that the US is about to carry out a massive attack on Iran “way bigger than Operation Epic Fury and bigger than any attack ever carried out before”. He said, “we are all set for it”; “I’m close to making a decision,” he told Axios.

What they’re saying: Israeli Channel 15 reports that the US military has begun deploying bombers to carry out attacks on Iran, with the first attack using B1 bombers being flown on Tuesday this week. The US reportedly has notified Israel of plans to intensify attacks on Iran.