Euphoria turns to disillusion – “Iran has not been defeated”

Conflicts Forum’s compilation tracking strategic developments in Israel, 24 June 2025

Strategic Defeat? — ‘A cease-fire was the only option to avoid a prolonged war of attrition’ /

Ronen Bergman: “There is a great advantage in this solution … Each side will be able to tell its people the story it wants” /

Ben Caspit (24 June): ‘Given the reality, this is the time to step back – when we’re at our peak’ /

Ben Caspit (23 June): ‘We have reached the stars. Victory belongs to the State of Israel. What we have seen since the October 7 disaster is a correction’ /

“Bibi is finished, now it's our turn” (Leading National Religious daily) /

Yigal Sarna: “What does this say about our mental structure as Israelis? Because from within us [Netanyahu] emerged. Our shadow figure. The monster” /

Ronen Bergman: “The beheading forum, which decided the fates of [Iranian] scientists sat down and decided who would be ranked at level A … and who at levels B, C or D”

[These compilations are drawn from analysis & commentary by leading Israeli political and security commentators, predominantly published in Hebrew — as reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse].

Ronen Bergman: “Each side will be able to tell its people the story it wants – Khamenei that he destroyed Tel Aviv, and Netanyahu and Trump that they eliminated the Iranian nuclear program for the world” —

There is still no official confirmation [of the ceasefire] from Israel, but it is hard to assume that the President announced it without Netanyahu’s consent … [This is] the only option to avoid a prolonged war of attrition that would set the entire region ablaze. Senior officials in the past and present in the defense establishment say that looking at what remains or has been destroyed from the nuclear project is not the right direction at all. Iran, according to this view, is left without air defense, and that is the important part. In this situation, the United States could declare a ceasefire, “oblige” Netanyahu to it, as it were, and even let the Iranians fire the last missile. If Iran continues to fire after this time – the proposal promises – both countries will target vital infrastructure or some energy storage facility and destroy them. But if Iran does not fire, everyone will cease fire. In this situation, each side will be able to tell its people the story it wants – Khamenei that he destroyed Tel Aviv, and Netanyahu and Trump that they eliminated the Iranian nuclear program for the world.

Iran will not have to sign a nuclear agreement that amounts to surrender, but it will know that any nuclear component that moves there, even for a second, any centrifuge that starts spinning, any scientist who touches on a subject that might be related to weapons - will immediately be hijacked by a missile from the F-35 …

There is a great advantage in this solution, which ends the war now, guarantees the preservation of Iranian honor, both national and not just religious-revolutionary-jihadist, and that it leaves a situation in which Israel can attack Iran, years from now, if it tries to dig up its nuclear project from the trash heap again.

This solution is very similar to the ceasefire with Hizbullah, which, it is worth mentioning, was the main military threat to Israel until the crushing defeat it suffered. Israel did not eliminate the organisation, nor did it demand its disarmament or a change in its status in Lebanon as part of the terms of the agreement, but rather left it with the option of acting in cases of escalation or unusual activity, and this against an enemy that is a terrorist organisation, not a state, and is located on our northern border, a danger that many saw as more serious than the Iranian one.