If Iran Survives and Stays Steadfast, Trump’s Resource War on China and BRICS Collapses

Alastair Crooke, 3 March 2026

The US-Israeli war primordially is being waged to create Israeli hegemony across West Asia.

At one level, the conflict is an existential battle, fought out between Iranian missile and intercept capabilities, versus those of the US and Israel.

Conventional thinking has been that this was a no-brainer contest: Iran would be outmatched by US technology and firepower, and forced to capitulate.

Iran’s military humiliation, plus the decapitation of its leadership, would result -- it is presumed -- in an organic upsurge of populist resentment that would overwhelm the Iranian State, and roll it back into the western sphere.

On the plane of the purely bilateral struggle -- as the war enters the fourth day -- Iran sits in the driving seat. The State has not crumbled, but rather is visiting drone and missile carnage on to American military bases across the Gulf, and is striking Israel with hypersonic missiles, armed (for the first time) with multiple steerable warheads.

At this point, Iran is on the verge of exhausting Gulf interceptor stockpiles entirely -- and too, has eaten deeply into Israeli-American dwindling air defence reserves through Iran initially prioritising older missiles and drones that deplete air defences. Iranian high-end missiles flying at speeds above Mach Four are proving largely impervious to Israeli air defences.

The US intelligence-led assassination of the Supreme Leader has proved to be a cardinal error. Rather than precipitate a collapse of morale, it led instead to massive outpourings of support for the Islamic Republic. To evident surprise in Washington, it has also fired-up Shi’a across the region with calls for jihad and for revenge for the killing of a revered Shi’a religious leader. Tel Aviv and Washington badly misread the terrain.

In sum, Iran is resilient and holding its ground for the long-term against the US, whose calculus was grounded in a quick ‘shoot and scoot’ war -- a strategy largely imposed by paucity of munitions. The Gulf monarchies are wobbling. The Gulf ‘brand’ -- Prosperity, big money, AI, beaches and tourism -- likely is over. Israel too, may not survive in its present state.

The geo-political ramifications, however, extend far beyond Iran and the Gulf States. Iran’s selective closure of the Hormuz Strait, and the destruction of Gulf port facilities more widely, tells another tale.