Iran War Effect Marks the Resetting of World Geo-Politics

Alastair Crooke, 28 May 2026

Seemingly, every day brings breathless new claims that an US-Iran ‘deal’ awaits only a signature. As so often happens, the mediators (Pakistanis and Qataris) hope to manage both sides by telling one side that the other party is at the brink of agreement when it is not so, especially in an atmosphere of total mistrust. By these means the mediators hope to push matters towards a final agreement. It is a familiar tactic, but one that quite often results in confusion and distrust -- rather than the hoped-for settlement.

The ‘plan’ at this stage has only two central pillars: Iran’s ‘reopening’ of the Strait of Hormuz (on Iran’s terms) in return for the lifting of the US naval blockade, and — at a later date — an understanding that the dilution of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium would be tackled in return for an end to sanctions.

To say the devil is in the detail would be the understatement of the year. Iran understands that Trump’s headliners of an ‘imminent deal’ are firstly, intended to keep the US stock market up and oil futures trading well below that of the delivery price of physical oil. And secondly, to obfuscate that Trump may be seeking a plausible way to end the war via striking a quick, incomplete deal that would, in all likelihood, be largely on Iran’s terms.

All other issues — including the crucial detail of any nuclear agreement — would be deferred.

Trump wants from Iran an initial concession that he can hail as a visible win — and one that will please markets, too. But Iran will not trade its military leverage, and certainly not the strategic dominance that it achieved in the war, nor Hormuz, for fuzzy assurances from the mediators. Iran does not trust the US one iota.

Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader observes,

“History bears witness that everyone who came seeking domination, from Alexander to Genghis Khan and Trump, ultimately ended up dissolving into the heart of ancient Iranian civilisation. This time, Iran’s red line is clear: papers and signatures alone are no guarantee. The tangible guarantor of the agreement’s survival is the Strait of Hormuz”.

“For geography does not lie. It is the final judge over every covenant written on paper”.