ISRAEL FACING DEFEAT -- Senior former IDF Intelligence Official: "Israel should stop the war"; 'Israeli public and IDF are exhausted’

Conflicts Forum’s compilation of consequential observations & strategic perspectives from leading Israeli commentators, 14 March 2026

Senior former Israeli IDF Intelligence Official: “ISRAEL SHOULD STOP THE WAR”; ‘The Israeli public and IDF are exhausted’ — Yossi Melman, quoting a former senior Israeli IDF Intelligence Official — “[Israel] and Trump should declare victory, announce that all objectives have been achieved, and cease fire. Just end the war that way. No negotiations, no deal, and no lifting of sanctions. Simply let the regime collapse into itself”

Eli Levita, former Deputy Director of Israel Atomic Energy Commission: ‘ULTIMATE GOALS OF THE WAR FAR FROM BEING ACHIEVED. Overthrow of Iranian Regime now seems imaginary’ /

Ben Caspit: “IRAN NOT BLINKING” -- Two weeks into war, Israel and US “tamping down expectations” about war outcome /

“Netanyahu no longer talking about regime change — “He is preparing an alibi for himself so that the day after the war, he can claim that Israel had done everything to pave the way for the overthrow of the regime, but the Iranians themselves were unable to do so” /

Israel Backtracks — ‘The Results of the War Depend on Further US Action’ /

Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, Former Head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate: ‘NEITHER ISRAEL NOR US INTENDS TO DEPLOY GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN’ /

Avi Isacharoff: ‘HIZBULLAH NOT CRUMBLING, NOR COLLAPSING; Maintains relatively intact chain of command and control’ /

Nahum Barnea: ‘NETANYAHU WAS THE TEMPTRESS, TRUMP THE DUPE. Netanyahu brought Trump into the war, and with that, his role ended’

[These compilations are drawn from analysis & commentary predominantly by leading Israeli political, security and intelligence commentators, mainly from the Hebrew press — as reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse].

Former Senior Israeli IDF Intelligence Official: “ISRAEL SHOULD STOP THE WAR” -- ‘The Israeli public and IDF are exhausted. Let the Iranian Regime collapse into itself’ (Yossi Melman, 7th Eye, leading Israeli independent investigative magazine):

[I] spoke with [a] former senior Aman official, previously in Unit 8200. His analyses and assessments are among the clearer and more measured voices amid the endless chatter in the public discourse in general and on television channels in particular. In his view, Israel can and should stop the war. “Iran is being hit with severe blows, but the Israeli public and the IDF are also exhausted. Our leadership and Trump should declare victory, announce that all objectives have been achieved, and cease fire. Just end the war that way. No negotiations, no deal, and no lifting of sanctions. Simply let the regime collapse into itself”. This is certainly an original idea that few dare to present to the Israeli public.

He emphasizes that the new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, lacks experience in managing large systems. “He focused on financial matters and mainly dealt with managing the enormous family wealth that accumulated ... He knows Iran has no chance in a confrontation with Israel and the United States. He also understands that his country’s nuclear project has suffered very painful blows”. Therefore, the official does not rule out the possibility that the new Supreme Leader might say to himself and his aides: “Either way, I hardly have any nuclear capability left, so I might sacrifice what little remains to the [US] in exchange for a deal and the lifting of sanctions” … “What we are seeing now is an oil war. The Iranians know the United States is very sensitive to this issue” …

In [the senior intelligence officer’s] assessment, the new leader is not bound by old commitments. “He has fewer inhibitions. On the other hand, he and the Revolutionary Guards have a lot to lose”. The official notes that during the first three days there may indeed have been a communications breakdown, and therefore the Revolutionary Guards may have acted independently according to a pre-prepared plan. Under that plan, if the central government struggles to function, provincial commanders — Iran is divided into 31 provinces — have authority to act on their own … In the first days, he said, this seemed to be the case when the Iranian response was incoherent and sporadic. “It looked as if they had command-and-control problems. But I think that phase has passed, and today there is leadership in the country that was prepared in advance“ … “One must not forget that Iran is a state with institutions and a civil society, not just the Revolutionary Guards, despite their dominance. Unfortunately, here in Israel we think of Iran as a nuclear program that happens to have a country”.

… Iran has so far launched about 600 ballistic missiles from an arsenal of roughly 2,500 it had before the war, according to estimates by the IDF Intelligence Directorate (Aman) … [It’s] number of launchers ha[ve] been heavily damaged during the 13 days of the current campaign, yet Iran still demonstrates the ability to launch several missiles—between two and five in each barrage, several times a day … “What matters more than counting launchers and missiles is their operational doctrine,” the former official told me “They are managing a munitions economy. They fire a few missiles, and that’s enough for them. Their goal is to survive, and wear us down ... In effect, they are saying: you won’t sleep at night, and during the day you’ll run to shelters.”

(Yossi Melman is intelligence and security correspondent for Haaretz).

“IRAN NOT BLINKING”: Two weeks into the war, Israel and US “tamping down expectations” about war outcome (Ben Caspit, Al-Monitor 13 March):

Two weeks into the war with Iran, Israel and the US are tamping down expectations about its outcome, as concerns about the fallout grow … Iran [is] not blinking: “On the one hand, the military achievements are very impressive,” Eli Levita, former deputy director of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, told Calcalist on Thursday ... “The cooperation between Israel and the US is unprecedented … On the other hand, the ultimate goals of the war are far from being achieved. The overthrow of the regime now seems imaginary. The Iranians are not blinking.”

According to Levita, Israel could find itself facing more danger after the war than before. “A new leadership led by Mojtaba Khamenei may say, ‘We tried to be a nuclear threshold state, and it didn’t deter the world. We tried to rely on a large and sophisticated missile array, and that didn’t deter, either. We threatened to expand the war to the entire region, and that didn’t work either. So, like North Korea, we have to go for the ultimate deterrence, nuclear weapons.”

The specter of a bruised, humiliated Iran led by Mojtaba Khamenei ... seems to be a source of grave concern throughout the Gulf and beyond. “This is the nightmare of the UAE, of Bahrain, of Saudi Arabia,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source [said]. “This is probably even the nightmare of Qatar. They’re afraid that Trump will lose interest and leave them alone with the wounded and humiliated tiger.” Regional leaders are in contact with Washington to try to ensure that Trump remains committed to the war, the senior Israeli diplomatic source added, “but the Americans are not willing to promise anything at the moment.”

Netanyahu is no longer talking about Israel or the US toppling the government in Tehran, but instead is calling on the Iranian people to do so. According to the senior diplomatic source, “He is preparing an alibi for himself so that the day after the war, he can claim that Israel had done everything to pave the way for the overthrow of the regime, but the Iranians themselves were unable to do so” … [Meanwhile] While Israel expands its strikes, the Americans are also increasing the pace of their attacks. “The Americans are working as if they are only at the beginning,” a senior Israeli military source [said] ... “A third aircraft carrier is supposed to arrive there. American power continues to build. As far as they are concerned, as long as there is no other presidential decision, they will continue with full force” … “The Americans are picking up the pace and we are slowing down,” he said. “There are things that only they can do.”

Israel Backtracks — ‘The Results of the War depend mainly on further action of the US’ (Ben Caspit, Ma’ariv, 14 March):

… Expectations were sky-high and the empty declarations even higher, but even if the regime in Iran does not fall as a result of the war, there is no reason to mourn. The regime of the Ayatollahs has been dealt a very hard blow, significantly weakened, the conditions for its overthrow by the Iranian people have never been better. Hezbollah has also been greatly weakened ... operationally and politically. True, the declarations of “removing the threat” led by Netanyahu and his partners in previous rounds [against Hezbollah and against Iran last June] were hollow, but this is nothing new. Let’s focus on actions, not words …

If I’m not mistaken, the IDF, including the Air Force, did not get carried away by the general euphoria and did not declare “toppling the regime” as a clear goal. They talk about “creating conditions for the overthrow of the regime” … In the meantime, the Air Force has achieved unequivocal air superiority over Iranian skies and is devoting a significant portion of its strikes to trying to destroy the launches in our direction. The success is significant, but not absolute … The Iranian military industry is a huge event, in dimensions beyond imagination. It takes time to hit all of this, but the pace is very fast and the results are good …

Israel stabs, America tramples. Despite the frequent and changing statements of Trump, the American military machine, square and disciplined, continues to roll. A third aircraft carrier is on the way, more bombers are arriving, the pace of the Americans is constantly increasing. Ours, could start to decline. Interlocking, coordinated and deadly tools …

The Iranians are not giving up. They are fighting, learning lessons, trying to launch surface-to-air missiles at our planes, trying to disrupt, trying to continue launching missiles in all directions, and occasionally succeeding. The task is Sisyphean, but unlike Sisyphus, we have a chance to stand on top of the hill someday and relax. In the meantime, we can be proud of what has been achieved so far.

And if we return to the question of how this will end, the answer is inevitable: the Americans will be the ones to decide this question. If the US withdraws its hands from the region after the war is over, if parts of the armada remain here, if a comprehensive naval and air blockade is imposed on Iran, if sanctions are tightened further and all the loopholes are plugged, there is definitely a situation where it will be difficult for the Ayatollahs to recover and even survive for a while in power.

And if not? Then it won’t be good here. Because the bottom line is that we have replaced an elderly and sick 86-year-old Ayatollah … with a young, healthy (supposedly) 56-year-old Ayatollah who is seeking revenge [from an enemy] who has just killed his father, mother, wife and family. But let’s not be confused: the killing of Ali Khamenei is a blessed act. The world is much better off since his departure … [Meanwhile] the war continues ... and the only way to strive for the square of the vicious circle is to try, from time to time, to end the bloody cycle with an agreement.

Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, former head Israel’s military intelligence directorate: ‘Israel’s war goal was to weaken Iran, not immediate regime change’ (Rina Bassist, Al-Monitor):

Israeli leaders are keenly aware that the Trump administration will determine when the war ends and whether Israel achieves its aims of weakening the regime’s military capabilities and advancing toward regime change, retired Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate, [said]. “Israel will do its utmost to weaken the Tehran regime …”, said Yadlin, emphasizing that neither Israel nor the United States intends to deploy ground troops in Iran.

Apart from heading the intelligence directorate from 2006 to 2010, Yadlin served in the Israeli air force and as Israel’s military attache to Washington from 2004 to 2006. After leaving the military, he headed the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies.

[Yadlin]: “Until two days ago, Israel, US and Iran all pretended a long war would serve each their own interests. Obviously, that’s not the case for all three. Trump’s interest is clearly to end the war with a significant achievement, though he did not specify what this achievement should be. Israel, for its part, has an optimal timeframe to achieve its goals, beyond which attacks could become less efficient. It was Trump who launched the war, and it is Trump who will decide when it ends. Israel joined the war because Iran constitutes an existential threat to it, but once Trump decides the operation is over, Israel will toe the line and stop its attacks as well” ...

“Israel has two main objectives. The first goal is to reduce as much as possible Iranian military capabilities ... Each day that goes by gets us closer to this goal, though evidently we won’t be able to achieve it in full. Regime change is the second objective, to be pursued over several years. Israel will do its utmost to weaken the Tehran regime and the forces that suppressed the anti-government demonstrations, but it will not send soldiers into the country, and neither will the United States. At the end of the day, the Iranians themselves would need to stage a revolution” …

[In Lebanon], the Israeli political leadership adopted two very ambitious goals: The first is eliminating the Hezbollah threat. Israel seeks to protect its towns and villages in the north, so there are no Hezbollah militants near the border ... The second goal is for the Lebanese government to have the monopoly on arms in the country. In other words, dismantling Hezbollah. A larger objective is reaching peace with Lebanon ... Since the two strategic goals have not yet been achieved, the aerial strikes in Lebanon are likely to continue for some time even if the war against Iran ends soon.

Hizbullah not crumbling, nor collapsing; Maintains intact chain of command and control (Avi Issacharoff, Yedioth Ahoronot):

Nearly two weeks into the war between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, the group’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, appears to be functioning as the top decision-maker while maintaining a relatively intact chain of command and control … Many mocking titles have been written in the Israeli media ... about Naim Qassem … Yet after nearly two weeks of war … it appears that Qassem has managed to act as the organization’s most senior decision-maker and maintain a relatively orderly chain of command and control ... Contrary to perhaps careless statements made early on, Hezbollah shows no signs of collapse or disintegration ... It should be emphasized that Israel’s intelligence community, together with the Air Force, achieved something almost unimaginable in September 2024: the destruction of roughly 90% of Hezbollah’s stockpile of rockets and precision missiles, following an intelligence operation that spanned many years. Hezbollah is now significantly weaker than it was in the summer of 2024 by every measure …

[Neverthelesss], as the war continues ... the domestic Lebanese arena — which until now has largely been hostile to Hezbollah — is beginning to shift and produce different voices. Israel’s current threat to attack Lebanon’s state infrastructure, not just Hezbollah, plays directly into Hezbollah’s hands as it seeks to prove that it alone can defend the country — not President Aoun and not PM Nawaf Salam.

A sober examination of the war’s achievements (Nahum Barnea, Yedioth Ahoronot):

After two weeks of heavy exchanges of fire on two fronts, now is a good time to conduct a more sober examination of the war’s achievements and the role Israel plays in it. On the positive side, the war is replete with impressive military achievements, primarily on the Iranian front; Israelis have good reason to be proud of the IDF’s performance, and first and foremost, that of the Israel Air Force. On the less positive side, Israel and the US miscalculated the response of the Iranian regime and Hizbullah. They are surviving and returning fire. More importantly, they have reached the conclusion that the worst is behind them. The appointment of a new supreme leader was, psychologically at least, the turning point. It signaled the regime’s vitality. Now, all they have to do is hang on, strike the enemy, exhaust it and rebuild the systems that were damaged. IDF officials share this analysis.

All [this] require[s] elaboration and explanation, but the following determination precedes any explanation: Israel is in the war, but is not leading it. It is operating in the dark. Over every one of its actions hangs a large question: when will Trump, the Supreme Leader on our side, decide to declare victory and stop the fire? Countless decisions are derived from this question, starting with the Air Force commander’s decision of what to bomb … He does not know if he has another month, another week, or another day. The urgent competes with the important. He would not want to end the war in a state of Operation Rising Lion 2.0—a temporary fix with pretensions of permanence.

Now go one floor up to the [IDF] chief of staff. The [IDF] Chief of Staff decides the allocation of troops for the war in Lebanon without knowing how far the Americans will allow him to advance … and how much time he has before [the US] orders a cessation of hostilities... This past week, the Americans applied heavy pressure on Israel to avoid any action that would harm the Lebanese Armed Forces or its government. They did not object to the continued bombings of the Dahiya Quarter, which has been evacuated of residents … It has been agreed with the Americans that it is important to further weaken Hizbullah, in the hope that the Lebanese Armed Forces will get the resolve and the courage to continue the job. In the meantime, this is not happening: Hizbullah has not been weakened. On the contrary: it is surprising Israel with its ability to launch rockets and UAVs at the entire north ... and in its ability to coordinate its fire with Iran. It is no coincidence that the Iranians concentrated on the north in the last few nights. Hizbullah is acting as if it has nothing to lose: just as Samson proved in his war against the Philistines, despair is power.

From there, ascend to the two penthouse floors — to the Security Cabinet and Prime Minister’s rooms. [Israel’s] Security Cabinet is paralyzed. It doesn’t hold discussions on the war’s goals, the endgame, or the day after. This time, there is not even a pretense of discussion: it is not in the loop. Every now and then, the Ministers receive partial reports, with an emphasis on good news, and run with the crumbs to the television reporters. The reporters rush to broadcast. Does the public want good news? The public will get good news. At the end of the war, each of them will be interviewed for podcasts filled with regrets. Netanyahu brought Trump into the war. This is an impressive achievement: Israel could not have gone into this war alone. Netanyahu’s threat that Israel would launch an attack in May was a bluff. Now, opponents of the war in America are using it. Israel, they say, was the temptress; Trump was the dupe. Netanyahu brought Trump into the war, and with that, his role ended ...

[Meanwhile] the militaries of both countries are doing very productive joint work. The Americans are concentrating on southern Iran and the defense of the Strait of Hormuz; the Israelis on the west and north. The Americans are refueling Israel Air Force planes. This allowed our aircraft to drop more than ten thousand munitions in Iran during the first ten days … But the decisions were made in one place: the White House. The daily phone calls between Netanyahu and Trump were intended to keep the fire of war burning in Trump’s heart—with Netanyahu acting as a client, a fan, a lobbyist … There is consistency in Trump’s inconsistency: he suddenly halted the American attack on the Houthis last March; he stopped Operation Rising Lion in Iran, claiming achievements that did not exist, sweeping everyone up in that lie; he stopped the previous round against Hizbullah in Lebanon. If he stops the war in Iran without prior notice, Israel will be able to view the war as an achievement rather than as a missed opportunity. Still, the question remains unanswered: can anything can be done to neutralize the 450 kilograms of enriched uranium—the Holy Grail?

In its alliance with Trump, Israel gained military power it never had before and lost its sovereignty. That was the deal. The only time Israel tried to demonstrate independence was the attack on the Iranian oil facility. The Americans most likely knew in advance … They acted the same way as they did after the foolish bombing of the villa in Qatar: in their own way, they made clear to Israel the limits of its power.

Day 14 — The US’s extraordinary situational picture of the war in Iran (Anna Barsky, Ma’ariv, 13 March):

The US administration presented [on Friday 13 March] an extraordinary situational picture in its intensity of the campaign against Iran, and made it clear that from its perspective the fighting is far from over. In a joint press conference ...Hegseth and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine … described an unprecedented pace of attacks, a deep erosion of Iran’s military capabilities and preparations for further escalation … The Pentagon sought to present a picture of the almost complete collapse of Iran’s defenses. The General said that “Iran has no air defense, no air force, and no navy,” and that its missile fire volume had dropped by 90%, while the use of “one-way” attack drones had dropped by 95%. According to him, this was not just a damage to existing weapons, but a much deeper blow — a damage to Iran’s ability to renew its arsenal. This was actually the central axis of the American message: the transition from the depletion of military stocks to the damage to the production infrastructure itself ... [Hegseth] said that in recent days “virtually” all of Iran’s ballistic missile production capacity has been destroyed... “We are not only destroying the missiles that remain in stock,” he said, “we guarantee that they will not have any ability to produce new ones” … “When Iran is at its greatest moment of weakness, damaging its ballistic missile capability creates an opportunity to ensure that at any given moment Iran will give up its nuclear capabilities - or, if necessary, prevent it from acquiring them”, he said. In doing so, the Secretary of War made it clear that in Washington’s eyes, the strike on the missile array is not just a military move in itself, but a central pillar in the effort to cut Iran off from the nuclear option. Against this backdrop … General Kane, made it clear that the campaign is only intensifying. “Today is expected to be the heaviest day in terms of kinetic fire attacks in the entire area of ​​operations” he said ... Along with the operational picture, the Pentagon has also intensified its tone towards Iran’s leadership. Hegseth claimed that senior regime officials are “despondent and in hiding,” and took direct aim at the “new supreme leader,” who he said is wounded and in hiding.

“The crushing phase” -- IDF [still] seeks “to create military conditions for regime change” (Yossi Yehoshua, Yedioth Ahoronot, 13 March):

In recent days, the IDF has formed a clear impression from talks with US military officials: Washington is not preparing to end the war at this stage. On the contrary, the US is preparing to expand it. More and more forces are being deployed to the region, and American strikes are expected to intensify. In the IDF, the sense is that the campaign is only entering deeper phases in the scope of its attacks … At CENTCOM [headquarters], two Israeli officers with the rank of brigadier general ... are working with their American counterparts to manage operational plans. At the same time, a US three-star general is present in Israel around the table where the war is being managed. The division of labor is clear: different strike zones for each military, but a shared intelligence target bank and coordinated strike plans ...

After the dramatic opening blow [or the war] ... the campaign has entered a less glamorous but decisive phase: the phase of grinding down capabilities. In Israel’s defense establishment, this is defined as a planned war of attrition. The goal is not only to damage Iran’s existing capabilities, but also to erode the regime’s future research and development capacity — in other words, not only to break what already exists but also to prevent what is planned to be built ...

One of the central targets of the campaign now is Iran’s missile array … The pace of missile launches toward Israel also reflects the damage to Iran’s capabilities ... a gap that Israeli officials say represents a significant failure for Iran … In the IDF, officials say they are beginning to identify early signs of erosion within the regime’s mechanisms. According to military sources, initial cracks are beginning to appear within the IRGC, along with early cases of defections — although these are still considered very preliminary developments … “We are working to create military conditions for regime change”, senior officials say. According to them, the deep damage inflicted on the regime’s institutions could create conditions for change — even if the results become visible only after the fighting ends.

Alongside the other objectives, the issue of Iran’s nuclear program remains in the background. “If we had not attacked now,” a senior General Staff officer said, “Iran’s military nuclear program would have entered a zone of immunity” … “If we stop now,” military officials say, “the question that will be asked is how we failed to complete the historic mission” … From Israel’s perspective, this campaign is not another regional round of fighting. “We are fighting the head of the octopus,” senior IDF officials say. “To solve Israel’s biggest strategic problem, you have to defeat it.”

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