'Israel Picking Up the Pieces of its Deep-Seated Hubris’

Alastair Crooke, 18 June 2026

The Iran-US de-escalation framework has been signed. As always, getting a framework agreed is one thing, but preserving it from disruptive actors or malicious distortion of the text is quite another. Who knows how long it will survive intact? The MoU nonetheless constitutes an important phase — albeit one leg — in a long journey ahead for Iran. The Agreement however, may also prompt wider geo-economic ‘plate’ shifts.

Iran has succeeded in pushing a reluctant Trump to cross the Rubicon. Danny Citrinowicz, a former senior Israeli Iran military intelligence analyst, says that for Trump, “achieving a deal with Iran and ending the current cycle of escalation is not merely an option but a clear strategic goal … He now envisions a broader vision of US–Iran relations”.

An unquestioned dogma has bitten the dust:

“The long-standing expectation in parts of Jerusalem and Washington has been that sustained pressure could lead to regime change in Tehran … [However] the announced agreement suggests a [new] fundamental reality: The campaign that many hoped would weaken or even destabilise the Islamic Republic will instead conclude with the regime intact, strengthened, and formally engaged by the US ... [This] amounts to the collapse of a broader strategic assumption: that coordinated American and Israeli pressure could generate conditions conducive to fundamental political change inside Iran. Instead, the likely outcome is the opposite … [it is] an outcome likely to reinforce confidence amongst [Iran’s] ruling elite rather than weaken it …”.

This moment represents a major strategic achievement for Iran: A heroic image is surging across the globe — whereas Israel’s isolation on the Iran issue, even amongst its Gulf allies, has spiked. On the personal level, Netanyahu’s standing in Israel has plunged catastrophically.