Israel ‘pre-empts’ US-Iran negotiations with "regime change” attack; Date set “weeks ago"

Conflicts Forum’s compilation of consequential observations & strategic developments from leading Israeli commentators, 28 February 2026

Ma’ariv: ‘Date of attack “set weeks ago”’ /

‘Israel targeting the entire Iranian leadership — political and military, past, present, and future’ /

IDF/IAF Statement - ‘Largest strike sortie in history of the Israeli Air Force’ /

Amit Segal: ‘Israel, not the US, attacked Khamenei’s house. Thirty bombs were dropped on the compound’ /

Reports on damage from Iranian missile attacks on Israel censored -- some details emerge /

Ben Caspit: ‘If Western intelligence agencies did their job, internal ferment [in Iran] should be bubbling and bursting forth right now. Pockets of desertion in the army. Protests ... Help is arriving. This is your moment’ /

“Once the smoke from the first wave clears, we’ll know who of [Iran’s] leadership is still with us and who isn’t. Cautious optimism regarding Khamenei’s neutralization. Waiting for the dust to settle, literally” /

Leading Israeli Iran except: ‘Doubtful airstrikes can bring down Iranian regime’; Minimum objectives “to conclude this round of fighting” /

War for Regime Change — Will Trump Stay the Course?

[These compilations are drawn from analysis & commentary predominantly by leading Israeli political, social and cultural commentators, mainly from the Hebrew press — as reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse].

Israel targets Supreme Leader Khamenei in bid to bring down Iran’s regime (Barak Ravid, AXIOS):

The Israeli Air Force conducted numerous strikes across Iran Saturday morning in an attempt to assassinate Supreme Leader Khamenei and other senior political and military leaders, Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios … “The goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime, but developments will also depend on the extent to which the Iranian people rise up,” an Israeli official said. Israeli officials said Israel is targeting the entire Iranian leadership — political and military, past, present, and future — and that Khamenei’s residence and government compound have been struck. Among those targeted, officials said, are President Pezeshkian, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Pakpour, Khamenei’s top security adviser Ali Shamkhani, and former President Ahmadinejad. A senior U.S. official told Axios that American strikes are focused on Iran’s missile program and missile launchers, while Israeli strikes are focused on both eliminating senior Iranian officials and targeting the missile program …

In a video released Saturday morning, PM Netanyahu said: “Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands … The time has come for all parts of the people of Iran — Persians, Kurds, Azeris, Baluchis, and Ahwazis — to cast off the yoke of tyranny and bring about a free and peace-seeking Iran.”

In his own video statement, President Trump said the people of Iran should remain in their homes during the bombing. “When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” he said, urging the Iranian people to rise up. “Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass”.

What they say: IDF/IAF Statement - ‘Largest strike sortie in history of the Israeli Air Force’:

With some 200 fighter jets, the Israeli Air Force says it carried out its largest-ever strike sortie in Iran today. The extensive strikes targeted Iranian ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems, according to the military. The IDF says the fighter jets dropped hundreds of munitions on some 500 Iranian military targets in western and central Iran, near-simultaneously, in the morning hours as part of the sortie. “This is the largest strike sortie in the history of the Israeli Air Force, executed after close planning with high-quality intelligence, synchronizing hundreds of aircraft simultaneously,” the military says in a statement.

‘If Western intelligence agencies did their job, internal ferment [in Iran] should be bubbling and bursting forth right now. Pockets of desertion in the army. Protests ... Help is arriving. This is your moment’ Ben Caspit (comments compiled from Caspit’s Twitter site):

The attack this morning, carried out simultaneously at a large number of sites in Tehran and its surroundings, was prepared by the IDF for long months. Meticulous work by Military Intelligence, by Unit 8200, by the Mossad, by all the branches, to locate targets and increase their number and the intelligence we have on the places where senior regime and military officials are staying, has borne fruit. The IDF says the morning-hour attack caught the Iranians by surprise. They were convinced it would happen at night and breathed a sigh of relief in the morning. For some of them, it was their last breath. As I understand it, the first wave of attacks was Israeli and the Americans joined it. Thousands of hours of intensive work by Military Intelligence and the intelligence systems were what convinced the Americans that there was a chance to deliver to the Iranians, for the second time, a precise and painful blow that would paralyze part of the leadership and military command.

When the entire world is expecting an attack on Iran, it’s hard to talk about the “principle of surprise.” So the small surprise was an attack in broad daylight ... Once the smoke from the first wave clears, we’ll know who of the leadership is still with us and who isn’t. Cautious optimism regarding Khamenei’s neutralization. Waiting for the dust to settle, literally. Eyes are now on what’s happening inside Iran. If the Western intelligence agencies did their job, the internal ferment should be bubbling and bursting forth right now. Pockets of desertion in the army. Protests. Strikes against symbols of power. It was promised that “help is on the way,” so the help is arriving. This is your moment.

Ma’ariv: ‘Date of attack “set weeks ago”’ / ‘Israeli officials estimate high level of success in assassinations among Iran’s leadership’:

Yaron Avraham of News 12 reported that “with due caution,” Israeli officials estimate that there is a very high level of success in the assassinations carried out this morning among the leadership in Iran. Avraham reported that among the casualties were “senior commanders” and the Iranian president, and that there is “satisfaction” with the results of the attacks. Axios news website reported that among the senior figures attacked were Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and [the]Iranian President. The New York Times published the first satellite images of Khamenei’s compound in Tehran after the attack … Al-Hadath reported that planning for the operation began months ago and the date was set weeks ago … Trump said after the attack: “… Our goal is to protect the American people by eliminating immediate threats from the Iranian regime, a brutal group of very difficult and terrible people.” The President reviewed Iran’s string of terrorist acts and accused: “For 47 years, the Iranian regime has screamed “’Death to America’ and waged an unceasing campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, directed against innocent civilians and US soldiers.”

What they say: Hillel Biton Rosen, Israeli Channel 14’s military correspondent:

Israeli assessments indicate that the attempt to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Iranian president has failed.

What they say: Amit Segal (pro-Netanyahu commentator):

“Israel, not the US, was the one that attacked Khamenei. Thirty bombs were dropped on the compound. Khamenei’s military secretary is dead, and apparently so are family members. Khamenei is “almost certainly dead.””

What they say: Yossi Melman:

Israeli and American intelligence are trying to determine if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was harmed. He is out of contact.

Reports on damage from Iranian missile attacks on Israel censored. Nevertheless, some details emerge:

(IDF has imposed strict censorship on reports and images of all targeted locations)

Today (Day 1), Iran has launched around 200 ballistic missiles on Israeli territory, including hitting a number of settlements in the West Bank.

Israel’s Channel 15: Iran has targeted Tel Aviv with multiple-warhead missiles.

Explosions have been reported across central Israel, with rockets falling in greater Tel Aviv, Kafr Qasim, and Gush Dan.

Footage circulating on internet of Israel launching lots of interceptor missiles — they’ll be depleted quickly at this rate.

Report: Mossad base Glilot 8200, north of Tel Aviv has been destroyed.

What happened behind the scenes of the attack on Iran (Avi Ashkenazi, Ma’ariv):

The situation hours after the start of the Israeli-American attack on Iran: The goal of the war is to create an infrastructure for overthrowing the Iranian regime through military force. The attack this morning (Saturday) was carried out simultaneously at several locations in Tehran, where senior figures in Iran’s political and security leadership gathered. The IDF prepared for this with an operational plan developed over months, centered on an intelligence effort by the Intelligence Directorate to identify an operational opportunity as soon as the regime’s senior officials gather … Confidence in Israel’s intelligence and operational capabilities was a significant factor in the US decision to join the campaign ... The attacks also included the headquarters and operations rooms of all Iranian security organizations. Two hours after the attack, the Iranians returned fire when they fired at American targets in the Arabian Gulf … [and] at Israel …

Leading Israeli Iran except on minimum objectives “to conclude this round of fighting” (Raz Zimmet, Israeli Institute for National Strategic Studies):

The ability to conclude the current round of fighting in a different manner—and this is essential, since it is not feasible to enter into a military confrontation with Iran every few months—requires, at a minimum, the achievement of two central objectives. First, undermining the foundations of the regime (not necessarily toppling it) to make it more difficult for it to preserve internal cohesion, rebuild its capabilities, and, to the greatest extent possible, diminish its ability to function in ways that enable it to carry out its missions. Second, denying Iran, to the greatest extent possible, the ability to reconstitute its ballistic missile array by targeting not only launchers and blocking access to tunnels (as was done in June), but also by inflicting far more significant damage on underground infrastructure and production capabilities.

‘Doubtful whether airstrikes, no matter how significant, can bring down the Islamic Republic and establish a worthy alternative without the active participation of millions of Iranian citizens’ (Raz Zimmet, Yedioth Ahoronot)

It is difficult to assess what impact the Israeli-American attack will have on the stability of the regime, and even more so on its very survival. It is doubtful whether an airstrike, no matter how significant, can bring down the Islamic Republic and establish a worthy alternative on its ruins without the active participation of millions of Iranian citizens, who are unclear how many times they will risk their lives before they come to the conclusion that there is a horizon that offers a chance for positive change for them. However, to the extent that the attack includes the decapitation of senior figures in the Iranian political and security leadership, it will weaken the ability of the security forces to suppress internal challenges to the stability of the regime – and the more these arise down the road – the greater the chance that its foundations will be undermined.

The key question: What is the main target of the combined Israeli-American attack, and hence what is the mechanism that will allow the end of the campaign? In this initial stage of the campaign, it is possible to raise mainly questions and fewer answers regarding four central issues. First, what will be the impact of the campaign on the stability of the regime in terms of its ability to survive the campaign, maintain its internal cohesion, and prevent the attacks from being exploited by angry Iranian citizens who are waiting for an opportunity to bring about its downfall. Second, what will be the impact of the attacks on Iran’s strategic arrays, primarily the ballistic missile array, the process of rebuilding which began immediately after the end of “Am Kalavi”, and the nuclear program, which the 12-day war significantly damaged but left residual capabilities that allow Iran to rebuild if a decision is made. Third, what will be the response policy of Iran and its proxies, primarily Hezbollah, towards Israel, towards American forces in the Middle East, and possibly also towards its Arab neighbors in the Gulf, in light of the Iranian leader’s explicit warning to turn any military conflict with the United States and Israel into a regional campaign. And fourth, the key question: What is the central target of the combined Israeli-American attack, and hence what is the mechanism that will enable the end of the campaign? … It is to be hoped that the current campaign will end in a way that will not necessitate another round of fighting in a few months, but it is doubtful whether this goal can be realized only through significant damage to Iran’s military capabilities and without undermining the foundations of the regime and dismantling its ability to function in a way that will bring about a strategic shift in Iranian policy.

(Dr. Raz Zimet is Director of the Iran and Shiite Axis Program, Institute for National Security Studies (INSS))

War for Regime Change — Will Trump Stay the Course? (Amos Harel, Haaretz):

In his initial statements, Trump [stated that the] continuation of the war will depend, at least initially, on the response of protest movements inside Iran. If they return to the streets in large numbers, despite the risk to demonstrators’ lives, the regime’s weaknesses may be exposed … for now, the key question is whether the fear barrier can be broken. Are the masses prepared to risk their lives again to rid themselves of the ayatollahs once and for all? Such a move would have to be a joint effort. It is extremely difficult to topple a regime through external intervention alone, especially if it relies solely on airstrikes, as Trump insists. In Israel, while no one is rushing to disclose the scope of damage from the Iranian missile barrages … The IDF has prepared for missile launches from Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, which have not materialized so far. Approximately 70,000 reservists have been called up, mainly from the Home Front Command, the Air Force and Military Intelligence. This is in addition to 50,000 who remain on active duty due to the extraordinary operational burden following the war …

Netanyahu hopes to maintain a constant sense of war on multiple fronts. This stresses out the Israeli public and reduces the opposition’s ability to challenge the government. If every war is part of one long campaign against those who seek our destruction, as Netanyahu would like to frame it, then Israel’s colossal failure on October 7 becomes just one link in a long chain of events. Therefore, Netanyahu can stave off scrutiny from the media and his political foes, as they become occupied with the endless torrent of urgent, colossal developments.

Trump’s calculations are more complex. Another war in the Middle East is not a popular idea among the American public, least of all within the hard core of the MAGA movement, the president’s most devoted supporters, who tend toward an isolationist approach in foreign policy. For that reason, Trump deliberated over the attack for a long time. The decision to finally act while negotiations with the Iranians were underway likely stems from two things: anger over Tehran’s refusal to compromise and a reluctance to leave the large American forces idly deployed in the region for an extended period of time. If Iran agrees to return to talks and make concessions regarding its nuclear program, will Trump settle for that? Or, rather, will he go all the way against the Islamic regime, as Netanyahu will almost certainly urge him to do? [Netanyahu] sees a strategic opportunity, but has overlooked the long-term risk for U.S.-Israeli relations. If the war becomes entangled and exacts a price from the United States, many Republican and Democratic voters will accuse Israel of having pushed for it deliberately.

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