"Jerusalem believes the path to victory runs through control of Kharg Island” -- Israeli narratives of defeat emerge

Conflicts Forum’s compilation of consequential & strategic perspectives from leading Israeli commentators (translated from the Hebrew press), 25 March 2026

Israel warns in closed talks: ‘No cracks in Iran’s leadership; IRCG holding the helm’ /

“Washington in shock” — ‘Iran demands dramatic geopolitical change in the Persian Gulf’ /

‘The Kingdom of Hormuz’ — ‘The die has been cast; Hormuz closed only once before -- in 1951 by Britain’ /

“Well, shit, Sherlock. A War of Plunder Without Strategy … An Orgy of Assassinations”

Senior Intelligence-linked Israeli commentators push narratives of negotiations — with “[Ayatollah] Mojtaba’s consent and blessing” /

Ronen Bergman: How Mossad’s decades-long strategy for regime change in Iran failed /

“Netanyahu already preparing an alibi to tell investigation committee that residents of Iran to blame for coup plan failing”

[These compilations are drawn from analysis & commentary by leading Israeli political, security and intelligence commentators in the Hebrew press — as reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse. Minor edits have been made for clarity].

STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS; CONSEQUENTIAL OBSERVATIONS —

Israel warns: ‘No cracks in Iran’s leadership; IRCG holding the helm; Tehran pushing US into a bad agreement’ (Anna Barsky, Ma’ariv, 22 March)

Israel does not buy the talk of real cracks in the Iranian leadership. According to Israeli sources, the one now running things in Tehran is the same hard core of the Revolutionary Guards, with no brakes, no softening, and no sign that it is possible … to extract the West from the conflict on favorable terms. This line was heard very sharply in closed talks in Jerusalem. Pezashakian, according to Israeli estimates, has weakened significantly. He was supposed, at least on paper, to occupy a more central place in the system, especially after the disappearance of Ali Larijani and Ali Shamkhani from the scene. In practice ... he is a weakened president ... while the real power has shifted elsewhere … In Jerusalem, they say explicitly … the body that determines, leads and dictates the pace is the Revolutionary Guards. Israel also does not pretend to present complete certainty regarding the condition of Mojtaba Khamenei. The assessment is that he is alive … but [it is not clear] to what extent he really operates the system, and to what extent the system is operated in his name. From the perspective of Israeli officials, it hardly matters. The person who actually makes the decisions is not more moderate, but tougher.

In Jerusalem, they say that the people who remain at the top now are tougher than those who were there on the eve of the war, no less. Therefore, in Jerusalem, no Iranian “perestroika” is recognized ... On the contrary, sources in Israel say that the figures who survived at the top are the toughest, and in this situation, a window for a better arrangement does not open (if and when the parties try to move forward on the diplomatic track) -- it is closed. According to Israeli estimates, Iran is still capable of sustaining a long war of attrition, with continuous shooting for months. In Tehran, Israeli sources believe, they are counting on one thing: Trump — that at some point the rise in oil prices will start to creak in the White House, and then there will be an American push to stop the war and move on to talks towards a ceasefire agreement. In Jerusalem, they believe that this is the Iranian logic at the moment: to bide time, exhaust themselves and wait for US politics and the economy to do their thing …