Markets prematurely may celebrate, but the next phase likely will be more, bigger war

Alastair Crooke, 18 April 2026

We are entering upon a new stage to this war on Iran. It may not be what many expect (especially in financial markets). Yesterday Trump said inter alia that Hormuz was open and that Iran had agreed never to close Hormuz again; that Iran, with the help of the US, has removed, or is removing, all sea mines, and that US and Iran would work together to extract Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU). Trump wrote:

“We’re going to get ⁠it together. We’re going to go in with Iran, at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery … We’ll bring it back to the United States very soon”.

The President said earlier on Friday that Iran had agreed to hand over Iran’s HEU stockpile.

None of these claims were true. Either Trump was confabulating (holding to fantasies, albeit believing them to be true); or he was manipulating markets. If the latter -- it was a success. Oil fell and markets soared. Reportedly, 20 minutes before the claim that the Strait of Hormuz was open and would never close again, a $760 million short on oil was placed … Someone ‘made a pile’.

All this turbulence created much confusion. Trump also said a new round of talks and an likely agreement with Iran would happen very soon — even during this weekend. The likelihood of talks is false. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reports that “the American side has been informed via the Pakistani mediator that we [Iran] do not agree to a second round [of talks]”.

From the beginning of the mooted Pakistani-mediated ceasefire, Iran was supposed to allow the daily passage of a limited number of ships. However, this was always subject to Iranian conditions for transit passage.

The net result of Trump’s manipulations has been to make Iran re-assert its existing conditions on Hormuz, on its stocks of HEU, and on its ‘right to enrich’ in tighter, less flexible definition.

The Islamabad talks had already showed Iran that its 10-point framework — initially affirmed by Trump to form a “workable basis” for beginning of direct negotiations with Iran — was no such thing. The Iranian framework was brushed aside towards the end of the day, as the US pivoted to its key touchstones for its intended victory roll: Iran abandoning uranium enrichment in perpetuity; relinquishing to the US its stock of 430kg of 60% enriched uranium, and the opening of Hormuz — free of tolls.

In short, the US position was simply a continuation of Israel’s long-established demands. The added experience of Friday’s US deceit will only have served to confirm Iran’s conviction to be continually on their guard and to view the contrived confusion as a possible US diversion from planned military escalation.