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The Gulf’s Colonial Architecture is Collapsing (Alastair Crooke):
The Gulf’s colonial architecture is collapsing — and Saudi Arabia is the linchpin of this structure. MbS can’t do a deal with Iran because Saudi is just too embedded in the panoply of US Tech, Intelligence and financial structures. These elements combine to - effectively - run the state on behalf of MbS. The consequences to this arrangement are profound in the context of the US war on Iran — Saudi oil sales are down significantly and the state is close to bankruptcy. Saudi has been trying to sell shares and US Treasuries that it holds, but it isn’t allowed to sell Treasuries. Even Saudi’s Gulf allies don’t want to buy Saudi asset holdings, except at a huge discount, because they’re not sure that Saudi, as we know it, will continue to exist a few months hence. So there’s a great reductance from MbS’ Gulf allies to help out MbS beyong giving rhetorical support.
Big Picture: At the same time, Iran is mobilising a million people into popular battalions of 1,000 people each — a million people in total. This doesn’t seem to be to defend against some expeditionary force from the US coming landing on the far side of the Hormuz. If I was Bahrain or Kuwait, seeing Iran mobilising a million men, I would be very frightened. I’m sure they are. There have been reports in the Iranian press of Iran planning to seize Bahrain, should the Emirate support America’s assault on Iran.
Why it matters: Saudi Arabia is a pillar that rests on one person in one family — one man whose father gerrymandered the succession so that he (MbS) might become king (though the Family may succeed in blocking his ascent through the Allegiance Council). In doing so, the Family was alienated and MbS’ position rests on a fragile pillar (when the King finally is pronounced dead). Saudi Arabia is seen as a key source of asset wealth underpinning Wall Street’s credit expansion, but if Saudi’s petrodollar revenue cannot be sustained, the dollar peg will be in question. What then would be the value of Saudi Arabia to Washington? For Israel, Saudi was the pivot on which the structure of its regional hegemony project has been based — to base everything on Gulf states and Saudi Arabia as the means to assimilate Israel into West Asia so as to dominate the region. That prospect is now visibly shaking before their eyes.
What they’re saying: ‘AnsarAllah demands from Saudi a victor’s peace’ (paraphrased from The Guardian): Saudi Arabia is being urged to reconcile with the UAE as the price Riyadh must pay to form a military alliance capable of driving the Houthis back. In January, the UAE in effect quit Yemen. Baraa Shiban from RUSI says: “It is unlikely that Riyadh would let [the UAE] back in since they are aligned with the STC, and that would spell trouble. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are fundamentally on opposite sides”. An additional proposal is to use Israeli intelligence and hire Israeli private security firms, something the UAE has done in the past in Yemen … Saudi, reluctant to be seen cooperating with Israel, has always resisted helping the southern separatists since division of the country might entrench Houthi rule in the north along its border … The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia is in effect a colonial power and the Aden government is a creature of Riyadh with no independent ability to govern. April Longley Alley, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute, said the war is ‘existential for the Saudis, but the Houthis are not going to compromise’ — “We will have to see if [the Houthis] hold these territories, but what the Houthis learned from the Iran war is that Saudi [is] under pressure and will seek de-escalation ... The Houthis are demanding a victor’s peace”.