Russia Seeks to Comprehend Fully the Various Constraints on Trump

Alastair Crooke, 6 Aug 2025

Another round of negotiations between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian leadership? A meeting between Witkoff and President Putin is likely. At the same time, General Keith Kellogg is heading to Kiev. This comes as Trump’s so-called ‘ultimatum’ is set to expire -- although Trump himself casts doubt whether the sanctions that may follow might not ‘bother’ Putin at all.

Has anything changed -- beyond Russia’s accelerating advances across the extent of the contact line?

In one sense, nothing has changed. The Russian position remains as set out by President Putin on 14 June 2024. Has the US position changed? No.

Earlier this month, Trump ‘whisperer’ General Kellogg suggested that the US deploy all of its ballistic-missile submarines to see whether Putin was “bluffing”. So there you have it: Kellogg continues to believe that Putin is ‘bluffing’. It seems that the Kellogg faction in Team Trump simply cannot either hear or assimilate what Putin has been telling them since June 2024 (‘root causes are what matters’).

For Kellogg, et al, pressure on Putin alone is what will bring the Kellogg ceasefire.