'The Decisive Victory That Never Was' -- A definitive Israeli account

Conflicts Forum edit of strategic perspectives from leading Israeli political & security commentators (translated from the Hebrew press), 28 April 2026

Below is a key analysis published in the Hebrew press by two leading Israeli commentators — Nahum Barnea and Ronen Bergman. Their analysis constitutes a definitive Israeli narrative of events leading to the war on Iran —

“At the end of 40 days of fighting, the operation that was supposed to decide the war with Iran did not take place. Everyone involved in it in Israel is left with a sense of missed opportunity. The question is why it did not happen …”.

“The plan to topple the [Iranian] regime was a central component of the overall war plan, the heart of the plan”.

“Both the political leadership – [Netanyahu] – and senior figures in the security services were freed from the fear of execution. Anyone capable of blowing up thousands of beepers in a single stroke feels they can do anything”.

“The plan aimed for a war in June 2026. By June, preparations would be complete and conditions ripe”.

‘After 100 hours of air operations, the second phase of the plan to topple the Iranian regime was set to begin — first a ground invasion from Iraq by Kurdish militia. Commanders said they intended to reach the Kurdish region of Iran and then, once Iranian Kurds had joined them, to launch a mass march on the capital, Tehran’.

‘Then came the phone call from Ankara … Trump ordered the invasion to be halted hours before the Kurdish forces were due to cross the border … Israel complied’.

“The United States and Israel entered the conflict without properly assessing the [Iranian] regime’s resilience … What began as a far-reaching, imaginative Israeli initiative, definitive in its solution, ends in disappointment”.

“A reasonable estimate suggests that 7,000–8,000 [people] were killed [in the January 2026 anti-government protests in Iran]’.

[These compilations are drawn from analysis & commentary by leading Israeli political and security commentators, predominantly from the Hebrew press — as reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse. Minor edits have been made for clarity].