Trump Dithers to Find an Exploitable Chink into Iran’s Firm Stance

Alastair Crooke, 31 January 2026

“The Israeli political and security establishment”, Anna Barsky writing in Ma’ariv tells us, “are closely monitoring the dynamic situation in the US-Iran arena. However, there is no consensus … on the the direction in which Trump is heading; nor [even] whether the US is close to a decision - and if so, what its nature and timing [might be]”.

“According to the [Israeli security] assessment - and contrary to the public impression - the American decision is not final. Trump, according to this analysis, definitely is leaving the military option on the table; but he continues to hesitate regarding the price, risks and chances of success. According to them [the Israeli security establishment], Trump is a president who makes decisions in an unpredictable manner ... [His thought process] is linear, influenced by internal political considerations, image considerations and the cost-benefit balance that he identifies - at any given moment”.

This presentation coincides with Trump’s known predilection for short victories and a story that he can tell: “‘I struck, I declared: Now we’ll talk’. This is a scenario that does not topple the regime and does not solve the nuclear problem, but creates a political narrative”, Israeli security sources suggest, adding that there is not necessarily any rigidity to Trump’s ultimatum: ‘If they won’t negotiate, we’ll attack’. Rather, the threat is connected to the question of killing [and therefore is fungible]”.

This suggests a potential path for Trump to disentangle from his maximalist statements: ‘I threatened; the killing and oppression ceased’. Crisis over, Trump could say.

And the Iranians repeatedly emphasise that, on the other hand, a ‘symbolic exchange’ outcome would not lead to the end of a conflict but rather to the continuing ‘shadow of war’; increased insecurity and economic and political costs to Iran.

This entire Trump calculus on Iran has many moving parts beyond military strategies: