Will Netanyahu sabotage a Hostage/Prisoner Deal -- for the fourth time?

Conflicts Forum’s compilation tracking strategic developments in Israel, 12 January 2025

A HOSTAGE-PRISONER DEAL?: “The only one who might bring about a deal is Trump. He's the only one Bibi is afraid of” —

Leading Israeli security commentator, Ronen Bergman, writes that the gulf between the sides on a hostage deal is still wide and deep (Yedioth Ahoronot, 4 Jan 2025):

In fact, the gaps on some issues have only grown wider … it turns out that almost nothing was in consensus … Israel is trying (yet again) to conclude a small deal that includes a small number of hostages in exchange for a small number of Palestinian prisoners—some of whom have blood on their hands, perhaps even a lot of blood—and will also include a cease-fire for a small (perhaps very small) number of weeks … “It needs to be clear to the public and to the families,” said a senior security official, “that when we talk now about a deal, it’s a very small and limited deal to get something, to free someone at last. It’s not a comprehensive deal, nor is it one phase out of several that are being planned. A deal like this could put all of them on a one-way path where one deal becomes several. But the opposite is liable to happen as well, and most of us are of the opinion that that is far more likely. That is, the small deal, if achieved at all, will be the only one for a very long time, after which it’s uncertain there will be anyone left to free” …

Among people dealing with the negotiations … there is a broad consensus to which the highest-level officials subscribe (and to which the people whom Netanyahu appointed to represent him apparently do not): it would be better to strive immediately for a single comprehensive deal, all for all, everyone for everyone, even if that includes a declarative end to the war. Faced with Hamas’s violations, so say Israeli security officials, Israel will have no problem resuming operations in Gaza”

Ben Caspit: With eight days left before Trump, “can Smotrich and Ben-Gvir stir things up and turn the tables on Netanyahu so that he fears them more than Trump?”

According to various sources, after the Sabbath ended, Smotrich called Netanyahu and demanded explanations regarding the deal being negotiated to return the kidnapped. It was agreed that an "urgent" meeting would be scheduled between them. According to various sources, the impression is that Netanyahu told Smotrich things like, "Israel needs this deal, it's not perfect, but because of the major tasks ahead of us (Iran, Saudi Arabia) Trump must be on our side and we must in no way spoil relations with him before he enters the White House. We must do everything we can to prevent him from thinking that our side has hurt him or thwarted the conclusion of the matter in Gaza." The assessment is that Netanyahu also understands that the continued futile bleeding between Jabalia and Rafah is not improving Israel's strategic situation and is costing precious blood. The question is, is Netanyahu truly determined and committed to this approach, or can Smotrich and Ben-Gvir stir things up and turn the tables on him so that he fears them more than Trump. This is a confrontation between the national, moral, Jewish and strategic considerations, and the narrow and personal political considerations of survival. Netanyahu usually chooses the second option. He is more important to himself than the state because of the working assumption that without him, there is no state. Let's hope that changes, at least this time. We must not forget: there are still differences of opinion. There are still gaps. The list issue is not closed (from both sides). The perimeter. And more. But as soon as Steve Witkoff was sent here by surprise and urgency by Trump, all these gaps are dwarfed a little. Days (eight) will tell.

Meanwhile, US Intelligence believes only 20 Israeli Hostages are still alive in Gaza: