Deciphering Trump’s 'externalised internal thinking’ on Iran

Alastair Crooke, 15 January 2026

To understand the background to events in Iran today, we need to retrace what I quoted US commentator & Trump biographer Michael Wolff saying last July about Trump’s thinking in connection with the impending attacks on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan enrichment facilities:

“I have been making lots of calls - so I think I have a sense of the arc that got Trump to where we are [with the strikes on Iran]. Calls are one of the main ways I track what he is thinking (I use the word ‘thinking’ loosely)”.

“I talk to people whom Trump has been speaking with on the phone. I mean all of Trump’s internal thinking is external; and it’s done in a series of his constant calls. And it’s pretty easy to follow - because he says the same thing to everybody. So, it’s this constant round of repetition …”.

“So, basically, when the Israelis attacked Iran [on 12 July], he got very excited about this – and his calls were all repetitions of one theme: Were they going to win? Is this a winner? Is this game-over? They [the Israelis] are so good! This really is a showstopper”.

The last weeks’ externally-orchestrated riots in Iran have almost completely vanished - upon Iran blocking international calls, cutting international internet connections, and most significantly, severing Starlink satellite connections. No unrest, riots, or protests have been recorded in any Iranian city in the past 70-odd hours. There are no new reports; rather, there have been massive demonstrations of support for the State. The ongoing videos circulating are mostly old and reportedly peddled from two main hubs outside of Iran.

The impact of cutting-off protestors from their external controllers was immediate — and underlines that the rioting was never organic; but planned long in advance. The suppression of the extreme violence practiced by an influx of well-trained rioters, together with the arrest of the ringleaders has cut away the main plank to this iteration of the US-Israeli regime change strategy.

The CIA- Mossad strategy has been based on a series of planned surprises devised to shock Iran and disorientate it.