I love your podcasts, but I wish you could provide a transcript. I can only very rarely take the time to listen all the way through. I can read an hour long interview in under five minutes.
It is interesting to listen to this interview. I have to look at this from as neutral a position as possible. I am looking at Iran's economy, and question the number of these advanced missiles that they have in inventory. It doesn't matter how clever they are, cost is cost, and even if labor is pennies versus dollars, the cost of materials is pretty much the same. So inventory is going to be controlled by money.
I would like to point out the Mecca agreement. It is NOT just about Israel. Pakistan is certainly NOT likely to be attacked by Israel. Turkey might be in time if necessary, and Saudi was expected to back Israel with money. I can't help but notice that Erdogan said the Mecca Accord is open to others in the Gulf community. Does Oman, as an example, have to worry about Israel? Not really. And as Alastair talks about the conflict between Yemen and Saudi, you have to remember what the Mecca Accord is about.
Now pivot to the war with Iran. I am tired of the same bull droppings that the US cannot win this war. The REAL issue is can the US fight the war that is there? Iran is confident in that it can and will weather this conventional war, and it is correct to say that the US cannot win this conventional war in the middle east. That does NOT say the US cannot win the war with Iran if it chooses to take the controls off of what it can or cannot do.
Trump's intermittent attacks into the Iranian infrastructure are probably quite effective in many ways. Alastair talks of the young, but the young are not the dominant group in Iran. They may dream of a renewed Persian Empire, and I want to remind people that this looks more like what the IRGC wanted than did Ali Khamenei. But as yet, the young do not dominate Iran, so disruption of meager to moderate internal supplies and energy will be far more aggravating for the older generations. Young people, in general, have little to nothing, and older people have struggled hard for what little they have. They WILL become disenchanted with the government in time, and that is NOT as completely on the IRGC's side as they think.
the real problem here is not Iran or the US, it is what this war is doing to the world in general. And I will not pretend that the US is faultless in what is happening, nor will I pretend that Iran isn't in the driver's seat on what is happening to the world. The US blockade is against Iran, the Iranian blockade is NOT against the US, it's against the entire world community. It is the entire world community that is suffering and you can pretend all you want that it is the US that controls what is happening in the Strait, but it isn't. Not a single ship exiting the Strait other than an Iranian ship or a ship carrying Iranian oil has been attacked by the US. If the US blockade is doing anything, it is keeping ships from entering an area that they cannot leave.
The fact that Israel has continued its attacks on Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza since the ceasefire started and Iran has demanded they stop but done nothing, suggests that their arsenal is not as great as we have been lead to believe by both the MSM and the alternative news. I question the content of those "missile cities." Again, you don't spit out high tech missiles and control systems for peanuts, by the dozen. I think Iran has been using its high tech against the US bases, and doesn't have the quantity available to prevail in attacking Israel, and they are aware of Israel's nuclear capabilities. Whereas the US can destroy Iran with nuclear, Iran knows it won't. Israel is another can of worms. It is almost like there is a backroom agreement between Tel Aviv and Tehran to leave Israel out of the attacks during the ceasefire.
And that brings us back to the Mecca agreement. I do not see the agreement as a defensive agreement between the 3 - and possibly more to join - countries solely against Israel - I think it is intended to stand against a budding "empire wannabe." The litmus test is being supplied by Yemen for both sides. We will find out fairly soon, I suspect, if there is going to be an effective defensive alignment as Yemen continues to expand its conflict with Saudi Arabia. I personally think this IS the reason for the agreement between Turkiye, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. There are two bullies in the middle east China Shop, not just one, and one is far more aggressive than the other. Israel cannot implement "greater Israel" without Armageddon, the dream of empire reborn, on the other hand, is not limited to Erdogan and Turkiye. It lies east of there as well.
Your argument is all over the place. What more can the US do now? This was supposed to be a 4 day SMO, not a years-long war. They can’t take them out with airstrikes, or even with nukes, and they can’t invade because that woukd require manpower and planning which they don’t have. Iran has called Trump’s bluff, and he has no cards!
The longer Israel continues their violence, the worse the outlook gets for the world economy, which *is* the dollar hegemony. This is already fraying with the yen crisis, and the knock-on effects will only spread further the longer this drags on.
Israel can do nothing, if they do, they are defenceless for the inevitable counter-attack. Bibi has already been blown out by Trump, and is now blustering and talking tough for election campaign purposes. He has no leverage. Trump has no leverage. They only have limits. The only leverage is the closed strait.
There is no sign that the two sides can come to any agreement, so what else do you suggest can resolve this deadlock?
My argument, actually, isn't an argument. It's a statement. You apparently have very little concept of what can and can not be done to a country with war. Iran is a big country with lots of people in it, but does that mean that having had its economy crippled for all these years, it is robust enough to survive what you seem so certain they can? Putin took over Russia and with the industrial base left over from the Soviet Union, it took 20 years to build an economy that grew the military and give a decent life to Russians. You think, somehow, that Iran, which did not have a great industrial base, can have grown an economy under maximum UN/US/EU sanctions that is robust and gives the majority of Iranians a good life? For some, for certain, a better life. And built up a super arsenal of missiles? They may have thousands of missiles, but those sophisticated, highly accurate missiles that they displayed are going to be limited in number. You cannot mass produce that sort of sophistication.
Like it or not "modern culture," which most countries strive for, including, I am sure, Iran, are electrically driven. The question in Iran is how robust is that grid structure through the nation. How easily damaged is it? How much of it can be replaced inside of a month? A year? Perhaps you get the idea, now, that you don't have to "win a war" not to lose it. You don't have to take over a country to render it destroyed. you only have to make life in it so difficult that the people decide to get rid of their government and try something else.
You say Israeli violence worsens the world economy. Right first letter, wrong country. As much as I detest that sliver of a nation, it is not their violence that is holding the world hostage. It is the violence of Iran that is holding the world hostage. It is their blowing up ships that are in another nation's territorial waters that has maintained the blockade on Hormuz. And now their proxy is doing the same in the Red Sea.
And lastly, if you truly think that Israel can do nothing, you are apparently the only person on Earth that isn't aware of Israel's nuclear arsenal, and what the Samson option truly means. and if you truly don't believe that 100 nuclear weapons can't eliminate the vast majority of Iranian industrial and military capacity, you most likely live in an alternate universe. Yes, there are weapons that Iran would still possess and could use, but that would be the end of their story. It takes supplies and manufacturing capacity to make more, and that would require power.
Right, your argument consists of a series of erroneous statements. Sounds like you’re fully subscribed to the agent orange propaganda substack if you’re mistaking his deranged threats and bluster for realistic strategic options.
Iran has one of the most decentralized electrical grids in the world. It would take tens of thousands of missiles to take them back to the stone age, and munitions aren’t exactly abundant in the US arsenal right now. Iran may be far better prepred to weather the storm than you’re assuming. Ever consider that? Their arsenal costs a fraction of the US’s and, unlike the US, they possess the manufacturing capability to produce them domestically, at scale.
But your video game-infused narrative says i’m the one living in the alternate universe? Good one.
First of all, I actually am not concerned with what Trump says. I do know that you have the illusion that Iran can actually carry the war to the US. You appear to mistake the bases in the middle east as if they are the nation. Iran can't carry the war to the US. The US CAN carry the war to Iran. There is an assumption that the world is absolutely aware of what munitions are available for use. As a curiosity, do you actually think the US could have been preparing for a war with Russia or China if it was going to be hamstrung in 60 days by the small amount of munitions that has been used in this war? I would suspect that there is far more sitting somewhere than have been dropped in this exchange.
As for Iran producing hundreds of missiles that were only developed over the past 2 or 3 years because costs are less, unless they are manufacturing all their components, they are paying the same price for components as everyone else in competition for them.
As far a decentralized grid is concerned, you can have thousands of miles of wire running all over hell and back, That isn't where industry is. You WILL have most of your industry and strongest energy supplies in the same area. It doesn't matter if backwater community A has power from a dam still if they don't have anything but agriculture there. I do not know Iran. I only know that there are limitations to what can and cannot be accomplished without adequate financing. Cheap labor cannot compensate for lack of funding unless you can take everything you need from the ground to the finished product, and I am pretty sure Iran can't.
I love your podcasts, but I wish you could provide a transcript. I can only very rarely take the time to listen all the way through. I can read an hour long interview in under five minutes.
Thank you.
It is interesting to listen to this interview. I have to look at this from as neutral a position as possible. I am looking at Iran's economy, and question the number of these advanced missiles that they have in inventory. It doesn't matter how clever they are, cost is cost, and even if labor is pennies versus dollars, the cost of materials is pretty much the same. So inventory is going to be controlled by money.
I would like to point out the Mecca agreement. It is NOT just about Israel. Pakistan is certainly NOT likely to be attacked by Israel. Turkey might be in time if necessary, and Saudi was expected to back Israel with money. I can't help but notice that Erdogan said the Mecca Accord is open to others in the Gulf community. Does Oman, as an example, have to worry about Israel? Not really. And as Alastair talks about the conflict between Yemen and Saudi, you have to remember what the Mecca Accord is about.
Now pivot to the war with Iran. I am tired of the same bull droppings that the US cannot win this war. The REAL issue is can the US fight the war that is there? Iran is confident in that it can and will weather this conventional war, and it is correct to say that the US cannot win this conventional war in the middle east. That does NOT say the US cannot win the war with Iran if it chooses to take the controls off of what it can or cannot do.
Trump's intermittent attacks into the Iranian infrastructure are probably quite effective in many ways. Alastair talks of the young, but the young are not the dominant group in Iran. They may dream of a renewed Persian Empire, and I want to remind people that this looks more like what the IRGC wanted than did Ali Khamenei. But as yet, the young do not dominate Iran, so disruption of meager to moderate internal supplies and energy will be far more aggravating for the older generations. Young people, in general, have little to nothing, and older people have struggled hard for what little they have. They WILL become disenchanted with the government in time, and that is NOT as completely on the IRGC's side as they think.
the real problem here is not Iran or the US, it is what this war is doing to the world in general. And I will not pretend that the US is faultless in what is happening, nor will I pretend that Iran isn't in the driver's seat on what is happening to the world. The US blockade is against Iran, the Iranian blockade is NOT against the US, it's against the entire world community. It is the entire world community that is suffering and you can pretend all you want that it is the US that controls what is happening in the Strait, but it isn't. Not a single ship exiting the Strait other than an Iranian ship or a ship carrying Iranian oil has been attacked by the US. If the US blockade is doing anything, it is keeping ships from entering an area that they cannot leave.
The fact that Israel has continued its attacks on Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza since the ceasefire started and Iran has demanded they stop but done nothing, suggests that their arsenal is not as great as we have been lead to believe by both the MSM and the alternative news. I question the content of those "missile cities." Again, you don't spit out high tech missiles and control systems for peanuts, by the dozen. I think Iran has been using its high tech against the US bases, and doesn't have the quantity available to prevail in attacking Israel, and they are aware of Israel's nuclear capabilities. Whereas the US can destroy Iran with nuclear, Iran knows it won't. Israel is another can of worms. It is almost like there is a backroom agreement between Tel Aviv and Tehran to leave Israel out of the attacks during the ceasefire.
And that brings us back to the Mecca agreement. I do not see the agreement as a defensive agreement between the 3 - and possibly more to join - countries solely against Israel - I think it is intended to stand against a budding "empire wannabe." The litmus test is being supplied by Yemen for both sides. We will find out fairly soon, I suspect, if there is going to be an effective defensive alignment as Yemen continues to expand its conflict with Saudi Arabia. I personally think this IS the reason for the agreement between Turkiye, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. There are two bullies in the middle east China Shop, not just one, and one is far more aggressive than the other. Israel cannot implement "greater Israel" without Armageddon, the dream of empire reborn, on the other hand, is not limited to Erdogan and Turkiye. It lies east of there as well.
Your argument is all over the place. What more can the US do now? This was supposed to be a 4 day SMO, not a years-long war. They can’t take them out with airstrikes, or even with nukes, and they can’t invade because that woukd require manpower and planning which they don’t have. Iran has called Trump’s bluff, and he has no cards!
The longer Israel continues their violence, the worse the outlook gets for the world economy, which *is* the dollar hegemony. This is already fraying with the yen crisis, and the knock-on effects will only spread further the longer this drags on.
Israel can do nothing, if they do, they are defenceless for the inevitable counter-attack. Bibi has already been blown out by Trump, and is now blustering and talking tough for election campaign purposes. He has no leverage. Trump has no leverage. They only have limits. The only leverage is the closed strait.
There is no sign that the two sides can come to any agreement, so what else do you suggest can resolve this deadlock?
My argument, actually, isn't an argument. It's a statement. You apparently have very little concept of what can and can not be done to a country with war. Iran is a big country with lots of people in it, but does that mean that having had its economy crippled for all these years, it is robust enough to survive what you seem so certain they can? Putin took over Russia and with the industrial base left over from the Soviet Union, it took 20 years to build an economy that grew the military and give a decent life to Russians. You think, somehow, that Iran, which did not have a great industrial base, can have grown an economy under maximum UN/US/EU sanctions that is robust and gives the majority of Iranians a good life? For some, for certain, a better life. And built up a super arsenal of missiles? They may have thousands of missiles, but those sophisticated, highly accurate missiles that they displayed are going to be limited in number. You cannot mass produce that sort of sophistication.
Like it or not "modern culture," which most countries strive for, including, I am sure, Iran, are electrically driven. The question in Iran is how robust is that grid structure through the nation. How easily damaged is it? How much of it can be replaced inside of a month? A year? Perhaps you get the idea, now, that you don't have to "win a war" not to lose it. You don't have to take over a country to render it destroyed. you only have to make life in it so difficult that the people decide to get rid of their government and try something else.
You say Israeli violence worsens the world economy. Right first letter, wrong country. As much as I detest that sliver of a nation, it is not their violence that is holding the world hostage. It is the violence of Iran that is holding the world hostage. It is their blowing up ships that are in another nation's territorial waters that has maintained the blockade on Hormuz. And now their proxy is doing the same in the Red Sea.
And lastly, if you truly think that Israel can do nothing, you are apparently the only person on Earth that isn't aware of Israel's nuclear arsenal, and what the Samson option truly means. and if you truly don't believe that 100 nuclear weapons can't eliminate the vast majority of Iranian industrial and military capacity, you most likely live in an alternate universe. Yes, there are weapons that Iran would still possess and could use, but that would be the end of their story. It takes supplies and manufacturing capacity to make more, and that would require power.
Right, your argument consists of a series of erroneous statements. Sounds like you’re fully subscribed to the agent orange propaganda substack if you’re mistaking his deranged threats and bluster for realistic strategic options.
Iran has one of the most decentralized electrical grids in the world. It would take tens of thousands of missiles to take them back to the stone age, and munitions aren’t exactly abundant in the US arsenal right now. Iran may be far better prepred to weather the storm than you’re assuming. Ever consider that? Their arsenal costs a fraction of the US’s and, unlike the US, they possess the manufacturing capability to produce them domestically, at scale.
But your video game-infused narrative says i’m the one living in the alternate universe? Good one.
First of all, I actually am not concerned with what Trump says. I do know that you have the illusion that Iran can actually carry the war to the US. You appear to mistake the bases in the middle east as if they are the nation. Iran can't carry the war to the US. The US CAN carry the war to Iran. There is an assumption that the world is absolutely aware of what munitions are available for use. As a curiosity, do you actually think the US could have been preparing for a war with Russia or China if it was going to be hamstrung in 60 days by the small amount of munitions that has been used in this war? I would suspect that there is far more sitting somewhere than have been dropped in this exchange.
As for Iran producing hundreds of missiles that were only developed over the past 2 or 3 years because costs are less, unless they are manufacturing all their components, they are paying the same price for components as everyone else in competition for them.
As far a decentralized grid is concerned, you can have thousands of miles of wire running all over hell and back, That isn't where industry is. You WILL have most of your industry and strongest energy supplies in the same area. It doesn't matter if backwater community A has power from a dam still if they don't have anything but agriculture there. I do not know Iran. I only know that there are limitations to what can and cannot be accomplished without adequate financing. Cheap labor cannot compensate for lack of funding unless you can take everything you need from the ground to the finished product, and I am pretty sure Iran can't.
Thank-you! Love and blessings from Atlantic Canada. ♥